Random thoughts about a Tier draft, 7th spot

Today I drafted one of my Tier teams and came out with a totally different strategy than when I went in. This is the team I got and some of the thought (or lack of) that went into my picks.

First round: I have a ton of drafts below the 5th pick this year which usually means that I don't get a shot at Brady, Brees or Manning. This can be a mixed blessing. Yesterday I was at the 12 spot and got Brady and Manning but that is the first time I have EVER had a chance at that in dozens of drafts here. So today I was going to use my usual strategy. Take the best RB off the board and follow with the best WR, unless a fantastic value presented itself at RB. Instead I went with Moss and let the RB's fall out in the second round.

2nd Round: Here I was happy to see D. Williams come around. I don't like his schedule but think he will have plenty of carries to be great. I don't believe in J. Stews achilles staying healthy. This guy is a steal in the second for the upside he has.

3rd Round: So I am drafting from work and people are wandering in and out distracting me. I usually que up several players for each round. I hear the dinger go off and roll over the Comp. There is see that Jennings is still there at the top of the list. He usually doesn't fall this far so I nail him. I will get someone like Pierre or McNabb in the 3rd, whoever is there.

4th Round: So now I am watching and see the picks dribbling off the board (these guys are burning the whole clock... zzzzzzzz). It comes back to me and Steve Smith is there! Middle of the 4th is a little late for him to be there, so I say what the heck, might as well grab him and see how things develop.

5th: I really am feeling I need an RB here because I hate to be weak at RB. But decide if Schaub or Palmer come around I will get one. Palmer is there so I push the green button. Starting to Sweat about my RB's though.

6th: I look at the RB's and think blahhh.... Decide I want RB with upside and get Moreno. Think this kid is way under the radar. He will outperform being the 21st RB off the board where his ADP is right now. I predict his stock will sky rocket after the first couple preseason games.

7th: The top TE's are coming off the board. I decide on Dallas Clark. Don't feel strongly about grabbing a guy like this early but didn't see many better options. He will be Mannings #2 target after all.

8th: Willie Parker. What can I say? I think when he plays he will give RB2 numbers. He has a more favorable schedule this year. Most of all the organization is more loyal to him than I think most people estimate and he will get plenty of carries. NOTE: D. Brown exited early in this round... love that guy.

9th: Ray Rice. Good #4 guy. Think he will be mired in RBBC but maybe have the better slice of it. He will get some long TD's this year and has upside if/when McGahee is disabled again.

10th: Trent Edwards: Maybe TO can turn him into a TD machine but most likely he will see moderate improvement. Not excited about him as my #2 but if he turns it up a notch this year this team can really make some noise. I missed Orton by one pick who is really who I wanted. Would have felt better about that I think, but maybe this was a happy accident!

Remaining picks:
WR: Cotchery, Josh Morgan and Chris Henry... these guys are all upside.
RB: McCoy and M. Bush
QB: Shaun Hill
TE: Scheff
D: Philly and Zona.

So the full team looks like:
QB: Palmer, Edwards and Hill
RB: D. Williams, Moreno, Parker, Rice, McCoy and M. Bush
WR: R. Moss, Jennings, S. Smith, Cotchery, Morgan and C. Henry
TE: D. Clark, Scheff
K: Longwell
D: Philly and Zona.

Nightmare on Q Street.

I will not bore you with the “my team is the greatest” post or “hand over the million dollars” post. This is about a team that appears fully decompensated, and for the first time in drafting hundreds of teams in more years than I like to remember, I think a team has a legit shot for last in the league. I don’t know that I have ever really thought that about a team, and it is still in reality unlikely. All leagues have a quitter or two after a few weeks, and they will likely relieve me of the 10th place finish. No matter how bad I won’t quit on my team. As a learning experience I will review small portions of this draft.

First of all, there is the fact that 11 QB’s were off the board by the end of the 3rd round and 12 by the time it got back to me in the 4th round (5th pick overall). That is freaking lot of QB’s even for the FFOC. Guys that are usually going in the 5th through 7th rounds were POOF gone. Anyway here is the team that I put together.

Round 1 :RB Matt Forte
Round 2 :WR Calvin Johnson
Round 3 :RB Brian Westbrook
Round 4 :WR Roddy White
Round 5 :RB Pierre Thomas
Round 6 :QB David Garrard
Round 7 :TE Greg Olsen
Round 8 :QB Kyle Orton
Round 9 :QB Eli Manning
Round 10 :RB Donald Brown
Round 11 :WR Devin Hester
Round 12 :RB Chester Taylor
Round 13 :TDSP Philadelphia Eagles
Round 14 :WR Josh Morgan
Round 15 :RB Shonn Greene
Round 16 :WR Mike Walker
Round 17 :TE Brent Celek
Round 18 :K Kris Brown
Round 19 :WR Joey Galloway
Round 20 :TDSP Arizona Cardinals

OK. I felt good about Forte at the 5 spot and Calvin in the second. By the second the big 3 QB’s were off the board. In fact 5 were gone by the time it got back to me. Coming back into the 3rd a total of 8 QB’s were gone (24 picks in). OK, so I though I would grab Westy as this insanity lead to better RB/WR values and I figured it would stop soon. By the time I had my 4th round pick every viable possible cornerstone stud QB was gone so I figured heck with it I will take Roddy White. What was the point now of grabbing scrub QB’s. By the 6th I figured I better grab someone at QB before they were all gone, so I went Garrard who can suck as bad as all the rest of them.

The post mortem of this draft is that when QB’s are going so fast the storm feeds on itself and they start getting picked off even faster but it is hard to see that until it is too late sometimes. I probably should have grabbed one really good QB (Rivers, McNabb or the such) and then I would have felt better. I would have ulcers if I had to limp into Vegas with this band, which is unlikely… LOL.

1st Gear 2009

Well, the 2009 football season is upon us. What does than mean? For most of us die hard fantasy freaks it means we are making our rankings and checking them twice, no matter whether the players are naughty or nice. But then along comes the FFOC, and all those usual rankings falter and the absolute best strategy is a bit fuzzy. For the typical flex money league it has been a pretty easy strategy, but throw in an extra Qb in the mix and traditional lists go out the window. YOU have to rework it if you want to succeed. That is what I love about this FFOC game. And that is why I am back for another year. Last year seemed like a really nice year for sleepers. I took a shot at Aaron Rogers, Warner, Chris Johnson and a couple others every time I could and that payed off with some a lot of success, at least as far as moving a few teams into the Vegas bracket. This year I am not able to put my finger on as many guys that I think "have it", as far as undeniable talent combined with a new favorable situation, in the later founds. But that will probably change as training camp comes along. I won't bore you with my drafted teams which are obviously the best ever and will totally dominate... yet. Anyway, get your TierX packages and I will see you at the draft!